AIDS vaccine breakthroughs and calculator magic

A friend of mine posted a link on her Facebook profile with the quote, “Woo Hoo! AIDS vaccine breakthrough!”

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/09/24/world/AP-MED-AIDS-Vaccine.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

I’m not trying to pick on her, I just feel like her enthusiasm is a result of calculator magic, not actual results.

I, like anybody, thought that sounded like a pretty awesome thing indeed.  But then I read the article.  Here are some key quotes:

A World First: Vaccine Helps Prevent HIV Infection

. . .

The vaccine — a combination of two previously unsuccessful vaccines — cut the risk of becoming infected with HIV by more than 31 percent in the world’s largest AIDS vaccine trial of more than 16,000 volunteers in Thailand, researchers announced Thursday in Bangkok.

. . .

Participants volunteered for the study and were told about the potential risks associated with receiving the experimental vaccine before agreeing to participate.

All were given condoms, counseling and treatment for any sexually transmitted infections, and were tested every six months for HIV. Any who became infected were given free treatment with antiviral medicines. All participants continued to receive an HIV test every six months for three years after vaccinations ended.

The results: New infections occurred in 51 of the 8,197 given vaccine and in 74 of the 8,198 who received dummy shots. That worked out to a 31 percent lower risk of infection for the vaccine group. Two of the infected participants who received the placebo died.

Wow, 31% lower risk!  That sounds pretty impressive!  Wait.  What?  Let’s look at that again.  Over 16,000 volunteers.  Group A (8,197 people) got the vaccine.  Group B (8,198 people) got a dummy or placebo.   51 infected from Group A.  74 infected from Group B.  That’s a 0.6% infection rate for Group A, and a 0.9% infection rate for Group B.

Here is where the study kind of makes me mad.  It’s not because they are reporting false numbers, but perhaps because they are pushing false hope.  Sure, there is a 31% difference between 51 people and 74 people.  But we’re talking about out of over 8,000 per group.  Wouldn’t it be more accurate to say that 0.3% less people got infected in Group A?

I’m happy that this research might boost excitement about finding an AIDS vaccine, but I want to see these same test results repeated over and over before we start declaring a breakthrough.  Isn’t it possible that Group A just did a better job of using those condoms that were handed out.  Or Group B just had sex with more diseased people?  There seems like so many possible variables that a 0.3% less infection rate hardly seems like anything more than luck.

Perhaps by saying they lowered risk by 31%, they can get more funding.  Who knows, but the whole thing sounds like a term my buddy coined – Calculator Magic.

I think if the article had simply been titled, Vaccine Might Possibly Slightly Help Prevent HIV Infection – Hey, it’s a start! I’d be a lot less pessimistic about the whole thing.

I Voted. Yo No Voté.

I made a post about this on the Corduroy Ninja comics forums, but I thought it might warrant a blog post as well.

First of all, congratulations to Barrack Obama.  This is the first time a president I have voted for has won.  However, I think now that the elections are over, I’m officially changing my voter registration to Libertarian.  I know I’m kind of losing out on the primaries by doing that, but I’ve totally lost faith in the two-party system (bot parties are the same these days anyway).  I figure one more person registered for the best third party option out there can only help things.   But I digress.

I went to the voting station last night after work and was pleasantly surprised to find no line at all.  I punched the screen, voted for the people I knew anything about, and was on my way.  Nice and easy.

But here is why I’m even writing about this.  I got my “I Voted” sticker. Much to my dismay it also said, “Yo Voté”.

Is it really necessary to have Spanish subtext on our voting stickers? If I moved to Mexico, became a citizen, and voted in their elections and my sticker had a Mexican flag and read, “Yo Voté”, I really don’t think I’d need it to be subtitled in English for me to understand what’s happening.

To become a citizen of the United States of America, you are required to be able to “read, write, and speak English.” (US Immigration)

You have to be a citizen to vote.  Therefore, I don’t think I’m out of line in my thinking that “Yo Voté” has no place on our stickers here in America.

Why do we make them famous?

I woke up this morning to the news of a terrible tragedy of a mass shooting at a mall in Omaha, Nebraska. At least 8 people were killed, more injured. After shooting up a bunch of innocent people, to finish up his cowardly acts, the shooter then turned the gun on himself and took his own life.

This news hit me rather hard as I know just last night my mom was in a mall doing Christmas shopping as well. This could have happened anywhere, to anybody. So, while I am thankful that my family is safe, my heart goes out to those families now having to suffer through this senseless tragedy, which would be difficult to handle at anytime, but seems especially hard so close to Christmas. More than being sad, I am angry. I feel an anger not only toward the cowardly murderer, but also toward the media.

One expert of some form or another was being interviewed, and she was asked what the motive for this could have been. Apparently the shooter had been kicked out of his home, dumped by his girlfriend and recently fired from McDonald’s for stealing $17. This is a rather weak excuse for mass murder. They also mentioned that one of the shooter’s desires was to become famous, and the expert then said, “Which he now is.” And this is what made me angry. Every media site is showing his picture, repeating his name, MAKING him famous. The media set the blue print with the Columbine shooters. They have said it: if you want to be famous, kill a number of people, then kill yourself. It worked in Columbine, Virginia Tech, and now in Omaha, Nebraska.

You’ll notice I have not mentioned any of the coward’s names, because to name them is to give them what they wanted. But they do not deserve that. The only people who deserve to be famous are the ones who were killed. Perhaps if the media did not make such cowards into icons, the people who would perform such acts would just stay in their basements and kill themselves without involving innocent people.

If you are going to take the coward’s way out of this life, be a little bit more of a man and do it alone.

Bring back the ushers!

Originally posted Wednesday, July 28, 2004

I read an article about an unfortunate couple who were pepper sprayed by a cop for using a cell phone in the theater.

Now, under normal circumstances, I would applaud such behavior. Many times I wish I had some mace to use on annoying theater patrons. In this instance it sounds as if the cop might have acted inappropriately. But really, that is neither here nor there. The article just reminded me about how I hate going to the movie theater these days.

I can handle the high ticket prices and the ridiculous snack & beverage prices. I mean, that popcorn is practically gourmet, right? And the sodas are always free refills. But really, who wants to leave the theater to get a refill, just so you have to leave a few more times to use the restroom after drinking 15 gallons of Cherry Coke. One $8 bucket of soda is enough for me, but thanks for the offer!

What I can’t handle are the other people in the theater. It seems that “movie etiquette” is a thing of the past. It seems very simple to me. Shut up and watch the movie. If it’s funny, laugh. If it’s scary, scream. If it’s sad, let the tears roll. But if it makes you want to tell your friend something, try to remember to do it after the movie. If you ABSOLUTELY must comment on the movie, do so in a quiet whisper. If your friend doesn’t hear you, chalk it up as a loss. No need to repeat. Also, you should limit your verbal interactions to less than three per movie.

Cell phones. It’s another simple concept. Turn them off. If you absolutely MUST leave it on for some reason, switch it to Vibrate. This is a simple function usually accomplished by hitting the down arrow on the left side of most cell phones. If the call you are expecting comes in during the movie, quietly exit the theater before talking. Everybody in the theater already knows what movie you are watching and they don’t want to hear you confirm it to your friend who just wants to know what you are up to.

Text messaging during a movie might seem like a quiet solution, but the problem is that most phones now have very bright screens which can be distracting to others around you. But I do like the idea of a text message coming in (on vibrate) that says “Hey I know you are at the movies, go into the lobby and call me back.”

Another problem with theaters – somebody is always sitting behind me. For some reason that person behind me never grasps the concept that if they are kicking my chair, I feel it. It’s annoying. To the person who must kick my chair: one of these days I’ll turn around and mace you. Keep that in mind while your feet flail around for no good reason. Perhaps that was really what set that cop from the article over the edge.

Kick… kick… kick… *ring* – MACE!

Many of these issues could easily be resolved if the theaters would do one simple thing.

Bring back the ushers!

If I’m in a theater, it shouldn’t be my responsibility to go find somebody who works there to come quiet a loud patron. My movie experience should be just that. An experience. A GOOD experience (depending on the movie). Keep an usher in the theater like they keep air marshals on a plane; Equipped to handle a situation should one arise, but not to be noticed unless needed. As patrons we are paying a lot of money for our movie experience, the least the theaters could do is keep an usher in each showing to make sure we get our money’s worth.

Is that too much to ask? Better yet, when you go to a movie, keep in mind that some people are actually there to SEE THE MOVIE. So please, pay attention to those first few screens at the intro of the movies that politely ask you to turn off you cell phones and please don’t talk during the movie. Because hey, if you don’t, you might just get maced.